Best thing I've read, this morning: A Canadian view.
http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/andrew-coyne-u-s-presidential-...
I'm clinging to this:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/03/opinion/campaign-stops/the-election-po...
He does make a good case for why many polls aren't necessarily accurate (and not in a way that would please The Donald)---and he should know, he ran Obama's second campaign. The whole landline/cell phone thing alone has to be a huge factor at this point, right? I haven't had a landline for 4 years and I'm sure there are tons and tons of people who have switched to just cell phone number since just the last election---and of course many young voters have never had a landline.
SDR - great article. Re dragging everyone else down to his level…. someone put it well when they said that Donald has made people more comfortable with their bigotry. Thanks Donald.
Spanky - I have always felt that Hillary's organization and experience would pay off in the ways that your linked article describes.
I STILL say its in the bag! But doing a lot of nervous "clinging" to whatever I can find to give myself hope, to be very honest.
Thanks for the great links!
Yeah, that's good. They've been saying in recent days that polls at this point in the game are unreliable.
Cell phones -- because spam-call filters work ?
So far I have only a land line, with an answering function. I'm not much of a caller. I've had my ringer off for a month, mostly; many many cold calls, very few messages left, unlike in previous election cycles, where many campaigns left messages. Even the mail has had fewer pieces of card stock stuck in my box -- I think.
The real villain may be social media, I'm now hearing. Last night's "60 Minutes" had Frank Luntz interviewing a sampling of disaffected voters. Somewhere in that the issue of Facebook etc was raised; the point made was that people have been "talking at" each other, so that now it's "I'm going to tell you" what's right -- based on lots of bogus information also absorbed from the medium -- rather than "Here's what I think" or even "What do you think ?" Luntz traces this to Bush v Gore; in the aftermath there was no honeymoon, and the stage was set for what we see now.
"Donald has made people more comfortable with their bigotry." Yes, that's one of the developments, apparently. And now, despite Comey's too-little-too-late retraction (?), his treachery may have cost Hillary the Senate and made her job that much harder. Damn . . .
Hmm...this article says that cell phones vs. landlines are not that big a factor, if any---
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/polling-when-people-dont-answer-phon...
They do say that people simply not answering the phone is a much bigger problem now for pollsters but that that too doesn't seem to be any kind of indicator. I know I answer the phone way less than I did when I had a landline. It's just easier now to see who's calling, to use voicemail, and to look up a mystery number online immediately.
I'm very disheartened by the number of people who believe that the mainstream media is all lies and distortion. I don't think the press is totally factual all the time, but that's why critical thinking exists, right?
I love a horse race…
Just for fun, I am going with 303 electoral college votes for Hillary.
That is MINIMUM 303 … it could be more.
My guess is mostly based on Florida. I think she takes Mark's home state due to the surge in the latino registration.
Again, this is the fun part for me. Love those statistics! I will be more than happy to be dead wrong if she squeaks by with a 270 vote win, and totally craters in Florida.
Of course Trump will throw a HUGE tantrum -- and we will all be even MORE glad he is not the president. I will savor both his face getting redder AND his "loser" status.
I like a horse race too, but more than that I like a landslide victory when the other guy is as colossal a loser as this one is. I want a freakin' mudslide of popular and electoral votes to bury that fool forever (except I know he'll walk away from it with stupid excuses for why he lost and he'll get some kinda deal for something out of it--but at least he'll be the loser).
Meanwhile, this!
I don't know her, but I love her !
You've both got it right, I think. But I just heard that, between the two Comey letters to Congress, 40 million people voted. And the wigs on the NewsHour think that he could have cost us at least one Senate seat, and as many as five. I don't want to be a hater -- but I fear I could be hating James Comey for a long time to come. (One result of this debacle is that we know now that there may be right-wing operatives in the FBI.)
In the meantime, the local paper ran this column by E J Dionne this morning. We seem to have reached the point where summing up is the order of the day . . .
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/defeating-both-trump-and-trumpis...
Anyone else in shock? I am horrorstruck. Fingers crossed that he changes his mind once he's in office and decides his hotels and golf courses are more important, and then Pence steps in. At least he has a brain. And then in 2018 we take back the Senate and maybe the House too and start to get a little balance.
This is just too horrible for words.
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